Key takeaways:
- Rich calls this the worst mortgage market he has seen: five and a half years into a bear market, with rates back around 7% after briefly touching 5.99% in February.
- Consolidation continues. Large lenders keep gaining purchase share, and well-capitalized, single-owner companies are winning the fight for loan officers with signing bonuses.
- On AI, Rich says nobody has it figured out. He argues lenders learn more from peers sharing real challenges than from vendor demos.
- He is concerned about affiliated business arrangements and light regulatory enforcement, and he explains how he rebuilt the Ohio MBA around real conversation and networking.
The mortgage industry is navigating one of its most challenging periods in recent memory, with stubbornly high mortgage rates, affordability pressures, continued consolidation, regulatory uncertainty, and an increasingly fierce battle for production talent reshaping the competitive landscape. In this Hot Topic, David Lykken sits down with longtime mortgage executive and industry advisor Rich Swerbinsky for a candid, no-sugarcoating conversation about what lenders are really facing. From the growing dominance of large IMBs and the pressures confronting smaller lenders to the changing regulatory environment, practical AI adoption, recruiting strategies, and the outlook heading into 2027, Rich shares his perspective on where the industry stands and what leaders should be watching next. In a market where difficult conditions are separating the strongest operators from the rest, this conversation offers a timely look at the forces transforming mortgage banking—and what it will take to compete in the next chapter.
“What’s more valuable to a lender? Seeing a pitch of an AI tech vendor demo, or a session led by three lenders talking about the challenges in trying to figure out AI?”
Rich Swerbinsky, on how lenders learn about AI
Transcript:
Meet Rich Swerbinsky 00:00
[David] Listeners, we’ve got someone who really doesn’t need much of an introduction because he’s become so well known in the industry. He has been in the industry for multiple decades, since the mid-1990s, and has spanned a very broad career, experiencing almost every aspect of the business. He’s led banks and lending divisions of banks. He spent eight and a half years as president and CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, and that’s where I met Rich. I met someone who got things done. He was focused and disciplined, and I admired that because he took that organization from four lenders to over 300. He built relationships with executives at hundreds of lending companies across the nation, and he serves as a strategic advisor today. He’s co-founded Onward and Upward Consulting, where he advises lenders and executives on growth strategies, executive recruiting, personal branding, and practical AI adoption. That’s a whole topic in itself. He’s also executive director of the Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association, where he leads advocacy and education. I’ve enjoyed reading his blog, Swerb’s Blurbs, a widely read industry newsletter read by over 2,500 mortgage professionals. He speaks at conferences, and I am honored to have you here, Rich, live and in person.
[Rich] I’m honored to be here, Dave. Excited for the conversation.
[David] For those listeners who don’t know you, give us a little introduction to yourself and your journey to where you are today.
[Rich] I was a lender for 20 years, a Cleveland, Ohio guy, born and raised, leading lending divisions for banks. I got sick of working for banks and was ready to do something different. I’ve always done entrepreneurial things on the side, and that led to the opportunity with The Mortgage Collaborative back in 2015. I rolled the dice on that.
[David] That was a good roll, by the way.
[Rich] It was terrifying. The first couple of years I wasn’t sure, but it ended up being good. I had so much fun building and leading that organization. Once TMC was over the hump, I always wanted to do my own thing in mortgage, so I launched that about three and a half years ago. Like anything, it was tough getting it going at first, and it’s been pretty good. I’m really enjoying it.
The state of the industry 04:00
[David] I gave a shout-out to one of my clients, Bobby Nicely over at Alcova. I told him I was interviewing you and he said, “I like that guy. He says it like it is.” In a culture where someone’s always trying to be politically correct or walk around sensitive egos in this business, you speak out on issues that are important and call things as you see them. I have tremendous respect for that. You talk to more lenders in a week than most people do in a year. Beyond the headlines, what are you seeing as far as the state of the industry right now?
[Rich] It’s atrocious. It’s the worst I’ve maybe ever seen it. That doesn’t mean people aren’t winning. In general, the worse the market, the more the best lenders grow share during the toughest times, so we’re seeing some of that right now. We’re obviously seeing a lot of consolidation. It’s a very tough climate. We’re basically five and a half years into a bear market, and to make this year even more cruel, we touched 5.99 in February, which we had been begging for for a year and a half, and two days later, bombed Iran. Rates have been seven percent ever since. It’s been a horrible quagmire this year, affordability is very challenged, and there’s no other way to sugarcoat it.
Ego, leadership, and speaking out 04:55
[David] There’s a difference between optimism and complete ego bravado out there, and you’ve called out some leaders in the industry on that. You’ve called out UWM for a long time. Talk about that.
[Rich] In my opinion, I don’t think they’re good for the mortgage industry at all. The industry has too long been defined by the most combative, egotistical personalities at the top, and I feel it’s given our industry a horrible reputation. With Ishbia, it’s clear success. He got started in the mail room as an LO and rose up to run the biggest mortgage lender in America. People say you have to respect that, and I have some respect for it, but I have no respect for how he did it. Running people over and being a jerk, and all that knuckle-dragging narrative. For a decade-plus, it really started because they paint their own narrative that is false or misleading, and nobody was willing to say the truth. I finally got sick of it and started giving the opposite perspective on what they’re doing. This past year, they’ve had all kinds of things happen. I was fortunate to be out in front of a prediction five or six months ago that ended up becoming true: major cash problems that Ishbia and that company have. That brought more attention to my comments. I don’t care what people think about me. All I care about is getting relevant information out that can help people, consumers, and the industry. I couldn’t care less what Matt Ishbia or anybody thinks about me.
[David] Well, we need a fresh voice, and speaking out boldly as you do. Greg Sher does that too. Greg’s a good friend, someone I admire. Sometimes he gets in trouble with the MBA. I’ve trod on that a few times myself. When you look at companies, you look at egos, at leadership across our industry. Angelo Mozilo, back in the early days. I lived through that journey. I knew him and respected him in the earliest days when he was building something to be admired, but something went wrong. How do we avoid that kind of thing? Is it calling them out? What do you advise?
[Rich] I do think the climate is much more conducive now to people like me having opinions on what’s going on. We haven’t had that in the mortgage industry. Things happened and there was no place to really discuss it. Now, with social media, and a lot of these companies being public, public data has exploded. Everybody can see everything. Combine that with the growth of LinkedIn and digital communication. People say to me all the time, “Don’t you get tired of the crap you take in the comments from the UWM people?” I find it amusing. Honestly, 99.5% of the responses I get are “thank you.” I can’t tell you how many emails and texts I’ve gotten from brokers who were UWM exclusive: “Thank you for helping open our eyes to this partner that we’d been blindly giving all our business to.” I think it’s healthy to have these discussions.
[David] And that’s what it’s intended as, a discussion.
Rebuilding the Ohio MBA 08:57
[David] Several people said the last Ohio Mortgage Bankers conference was one of the best because you had real conversation. Talk about some of the things you’re doing at the Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association. You’re bringing fresh new leadership to it.
[Rich] The organization was almost dead. We were down to eight lender members and, literally, $700 total. What I sensed was an underserved market. People want local events and a local state organization. People care about having someone who has their back and makes sure their voices are heard at the Ohio State House. And I think people crave networking. The mortgage industry has never been more challenging and never been more confusing, and we haven’t even gotten to the tech side, which is immensely confusing right now. Conference attendance is up across the board, in ’25 from ’23 and in ’26 from ’24 and ’25. Lenders crave that, so we leaned into it. I’m lucky to know some people in the industry who we were able to get to speak, we got a nice venue, and all of a sudden we put together a pretty nice event. It’s all real conversations.
[Rich] When we run a conference, same as at TMC, there’s one MO: provide as much value as humanly possible for the lender attendees, because they bring the vendors and the money. If you have lenders there, everything takes care of itself. A lot of organizations get it backwards. They build events completely around the vendors, and maybe the lenders don’t show up. I’ve always looked at it the opposite way: long game, build events that lenders will want to come to.
How lenders are approaching AI 10:50
[David] A number of people talked about the discussions you had around AI transforming the mortgage industry. Give us a report from that, and what has happened since that’s opened your eyes and your perspective on AI. Where are we heading?
[Rich] In some cases lenders want to see demos from AI companies, and we did some of that at Ohio MBA. But what’s more valuable to a lender? Seeing a pitch from an AI tech vendor, or a session led by three lenders talking about the challenges in trying to figure out AI and what they’re doing? The reality is nobody’s got it figured out. The existing platforms are trying to embed AI features to prevent runoff. There are a ton of vendors in the mortgage industry selling AI, and a lot of lenders are building their own, whether that’s enterprise versions of ChatGPT or Claude or hiring developers. Everybody’s going at it, and there’s no right method to the madness on how you make your company more automated. What’s right for a small community bank and a big IMB can be totally different. So lenders appreciate having those discussions with people who do what they do in other seats to help figure it all out.
Consolidation and pay to play 12:15
[David] Another big thing we’re seeing is consolidation. It’s everywhere: builders, realtors, across the landscape. Where do you think this is going? Sometimes it’s almost like a forest fire, only a consolidation fire. It consolidates everyone, cleans out the undergrowth, and then we have a whole bunch of new upstarts. That’s one of the trends I’m beginning to see. What are your thoughts?
[Rich] I’m seeing the same trend, and it’s concerning to me. We’ve had so much M&A in the mortgage industry, and some of it is needed. The realistic, dark underbelly of a cyclical industry in down markets is that you need to rightsize every once in a while. But we’re five and a half years into a bear market. There’s been a ton of M&A. The big have all gotten bigger. Look at every metric, every stat, and the big just keep getting bigger, while small lenders are being eliminated, consolidated, or merged. In a healthier market that will slow down a little, because the little guys can start to break even or make money again. But the much more concerning part to me is the regulatory environment: all these affiliated business arrangements, Rocket and Redfin, IMBs owning servicers, the Rocket partnership with Compass and Rate. There’s so much pay to play going on right now.
[David] So much pay to play, yeah.
[Rich] And it benefits the people who are already gobbling up market share. There are no rules, there’s no watchdog, and nobody has any regulatory fear whatsoever right now. You can find a lawyer to tell you whatever you want, because the rules are gray and there are loopholes. It’s horrible for consumers, for choice and for affordability.
Regulators, states, and the plaintiff bar 14:20
[David] It’s so true. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a time like this. We were all running scared of the CFPB when it was created, and now it’s Wild West time, with utter disregard for regulations that exist. Some would say the states are getting more aggressive in regulating lenders within their communities. What are you seeing in Ohio as it relates to the regulators, or in any other states you have insight into?
[Rich] I thought we would see way more of it. If you remember, when Rohit Chopra was let go, on the second day of Trump’s presidency, he famously handed over the roadmap: all the data-based cases he’d been working on, which were starting to show, according to him and others, that people were being steered into lending relationships and loans with higher rates and fees. There were 22 blue states Chopra was working with in March of 2025, and nothing has been done. Nothing. It’s been 18 months. The only state I know of with anything going is mine. Ohio’s attorney general has an active case against United Wholesale alleging that a couple of the biggest brokers in the state gave 99% of their business to United Wholesale over a three-year period, and according to the suit, that business was at higher than that day’s rates and fees, almost all of it. I’m shocked we haven’t seen more, because these are all data-based cases. There’s an active national class action against Rocket and an active one against Veterans United.
[David] I think we’re seeing that the plaintiff bar is alive and well, and they’re licking their chops at what they’re seeing. When there’s vagueness in the laws, it creates opportunities for them, and we’re somewhat exposed. I do expert witness work on the side as well. It’s not my favorite work, but it’s a great education, and I’m talking to more and more plaintiff attorneys. They’re pretty interesting. I think we need to batten down the hatches.
The war for production talent 16:40
[David] Another thing you talked about in Ohio that is getting more and more conversation is the war for production talent. It’s hotter than ever. Where is it going?
[Rich] I made a LinkedIn post about this yesterday, analyzing purchase market share over roughly the last 19 or 20 months, and it’s obvious what is happening. Small IMBs are being wiped out, the big IMBs are growing like crazy, and depositories are also growing purchase market share, all at the expense of anybody but the biggest IMBs. So who’s winning? Single owner, more money than God. It’s the best characteristic ever to have for a mortgage company. Look at the four companies that have consistently grown the most over the last four years by purchase market share, cross-country. Largely, these are companies with single owners with gobs of money paying LO signing bonuses. That works. There’s no other way to say it. I know why people don’t do it. If I owned a mortgage company, I wouldn’t. But these companies have gotten very good at keeping LOs in jail for three years, essentially, and betting that they can retain them. If you can retain them four or five years total, the math makes it worth it.
[David] The sum of the monies, especially at some of the volume levels.
The outlook for 2027 18:05
[David] Let’s look forward into 2027. Is it just going to be an uglier year in your mind? You talk to economists, you have great speakers. What’s everyone talking about for 2027?
[Rich] It’s so touch and go, because everything is tied to inflation expectations. Inflation is a killer for fixed income and bonds, and right now it’s horrible. We’re in a conflict in Iran, Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market, and the bond market’s like, “I’m out.” I looked right before we came on, and the 10-year is almost at 5%. Mortgage rates are over 7%. So it’s hard to envision the rest of this year. What do we have, four months left, not even? I don’t think anybody is saying, “Oh yeah, it’s going to be better in November and December.” And next year, I just don’t know. I’m shocked and disappointed at this administration. There are so many things they could do for housing today or tomorrow. Lower G-fees and waive capital gains for sellers of investment property. There are a million different things they could do that would overnight lower loan-level price adjustments, and they’ve chosen not to do any of it. We’re at 7% plus on the 30-year fixed. We have more inventory than we’ve had in 10 years, but no homes are selling. I’m a believer that, if for no other reason than they’re getting demolished in the polls over this issue, if this continues to persist, they lose the midterms and they’re going to have to do something. Either you see Bessent’s plan and Warsh’s plan start to work and maybe Iran calms down, or they have to stoke the market, because it’s such a big part of GDP.
[David] I keep looking at the midterms and I worry about the same thing, and then I look at how dysfunctional the Democratic Party is right now. There’s a whole lot of shooting each other inside that tent. We’ll see.
[Rich] The Biden administration was awful too. They did nothing for housing for four years and made everything worse by negligence. And we’re not seeing any improvement in this administration, which is why I’m disappointed. I’d grade their performance on housing and interest rates a D or a D-minus, if that.
[David] It’s been a real disappointment all the way around.
What’s next for Ohio MBA, and how to reach Rich 20:40
[David] What’s coming up for the Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association?
[Rich] Next week we have a couple of things. We’re doing a Columbus Clippers night at the ballpark, a fun little networking event, and our golf outing is a week from Monday. You can go to ohiomba.org to sign up for either. Then on December 6th through the 8th, we’re throwing what’s going to be an incredible Christmas-themed mortgage conference called Home for the Holidays. We’ve already got Stan Middleman, Ron Leonard, Bill Cosgrove, Lisa Ingram, the CEO of White Castle, Fran Horowitz, the CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch, Ohio State’s athletic director Ross Bjork, and a bunch of other big names from inside and outside mortgage. It’s going to be a truly special event in Columbus, Ohio, in early December.
[David] Congratulations on your success, Rich. You stressed it at TMC: it’s all about networking, and you stressed it here in what’s making Ohio MBA so successful. For those who want to talk to you and run their strategy by you, how can they reach you?
[Rich] I’m the easiest human in the mortgage industry to find. I’m on LinkedIn nonstop, so just shoot me a DM there. It’s impossible not to find me.
[David] Thank God for LinkedIn. Rich, thanks so much for spending a few minutes with me today. I want to have you back to learn more about what you’re doing in the state, because we need some states stepping up to do what you’re doing. There are some around the country that are struggling.
[Rich] I agree, and I’m really grateful you had me on. I enjoyed the conversation and would love to come back.
[David] Thanks, Rich. I appreciate it.
Chapters:
- Meet Rich Swerbinsky. 00:00
- The state of the industry 04:00
- Ego, leadership, and speaking out 04:55
- Rebuilding the Ohio MBA 08:57
- How lenders are approaching AI 10:50
- Consolidation and pay-to-play 12:15
- Regulators, states, and the plaintiff bar 14:20
- The war for production talent 16:40
- The outlook for 2027 18:05
- What’s next, and how to reach Rich 20:40
Important Links and about guest:
Rich Swerbinsky is one of the most connected people in the mortgage industry. His career began in the mid-1990s and has spanned nearly every seat in the business, including leading lending divisions at banks before spending eight and a half years as President and COO of The Mortgage Collaborative, where he helped grow the network from 4 lender members to more than 300 and built relationships with executives at hundreds of lending companies across the country, a network he still serves today as a strategic advisor.
He’s now the founder of Onward & Upward Consulting, where he advises lenders and executives on growth strategy, executive recruiting, personal branding, and practical AI adoption, and the Executive Director of the Ohio Mortgage Bankers Association, where he leads advocacy and education for the state’s lending industry.
He writes Swerb’s Blurbs, a widely read industry newsletter that’s read by over 25,000 industry professionals and speaks at conferences and company events nationwide. Now in his fourth decade in mortgage lending, Rich is known for saying what everyone else is thinking.
