[David] Matt Graham, thank you so much for the update. Appreciate it. Be sure to check out Matt’s service. You can get subscribed to by going to MBS live.net and you can get up to the date nanosecond and it’s so valuable, especially when you look at the volatility. We’ve got a nice rally going on today when we’re recording this on Monday. It’s just really exciting what’s happening. So, use the signup code LOL to get the extended signup period and you don’t have to put in a credit card when you use the LOL. You should just put up, sign up, pay for it. It’s really valuable. All right, let’s get over to some commentary. Bill Corbett’s here. Corbett as we tease him is so Mr. Corbett, good to have you here. Thanks for dialing in. Appreciate you being here.
[Bill] Glad to be here, David. And let’s start off with something that neither last or Matt picked up on. But the greatest bull you did, the greatest bull market in history started after the last time the US won a hockey gold medal. Hey, there you go. Hockey, hockey gold medal in overtime. Yeah. What a game in 80. And look at where rates have gone, from then. Yeah, it’s not market driven, but man, shout out to both the men’s and the women’s team. But yeah, both of them. Yeah, so true. If you wanna see the definition of somebody having the best day ever in their career, look at the highlight reel of the US goalie.
[David] Yeah. Yes. Yes. That was so good. It was fun to see how well they did. It was so much fun. Yes. So to now that the Olympics are over, we’re back to a normal life kind of no more football, no more. It’s kinda what are we gonna watch now? Golf. Anyway, Kittle’s not here on the podcast today ’cause a TMC conference, but it’s golf and slow drip kind of thing.
[Bill] Yeah. We only, we got what, maybe a month or so until March Madness starts yep. Yeah that’s, I know, that’s so much fun. Love market. But in, in terms of the market itself, just, a couple of things that they did talk about, right? Geopolitics is going to drive the next. Significant move in interest rates. And by definition that’s not predictable. And don’t get out over your skis and where you think rates are headed. And again, mortgages to Matt’s point, right? They’re grinding lower, that’s great. they’re in the upper fives, that’s only a handful of basis points better than they had been. So don’t get too excited by it. go out and sell.
[David] Yeah, go out. That’s the both size. That’s exactly right.
[Bill] Yeah. That’s what we talk about all the time. we’ll see if there’s anything coming out of the city of the Union tomorrow night that talks about the housing plans. But, first it was gonna be, Davos was gonna be the great unveiling. Yeah, I guess Greenland. pushed the housing industry off at the the top of the agenda. We’ll see what comes out of this, but at the end of the day, we can’t react to, to sound bites. There need to be substantive proposals for the folks in the industry to really get arms around. And I feel like we’re just on the soundbite, merry-go-round, so just, yep. So true. Put your head down and go do your day job.
[David] Yeah. Yes, absolutely. Good. Good. When when you are listening and talking to Les managing your own, what are you sensing out there? Overall optimism. I seem to sense that when I’m talking to my clients, there’s a general optimism that we are gonna see lower rates, and I know everyone’s. Les than been cautious and trying to predict this, but what are you hearing?
[Bill] Yeah think there’s. Guarded optimism. Let’s talk about production manager, let’s say, they’ll go into their executive meetings and they’ll talk up, they think rates are gonna come down, it’s gonna be good for the market and they’re optimistic right up until the CEO says, okay, so that’s gonna increase production by double digits. No, that’s a little bit uncertain at this point.
[David] Yeah, that’s hilarious.
[Bill] All joking aside, I, think that is the right approach, right? You, wanna lean forward into the market, but not with grandiose expectations. I think if you start seeing mortgage rates moving down into the mid fives, then you probably don’t have a leg to stand on when the CEO starts asking for revised numbers. 6.01 versus 5.99, 5.95. By itself. That’s not changing the dial that much.
[David] Yeah, there’s a psychological impact that it does have, but I think the most important thing that we encourage all our originators that are listening to this podcast saying is ignore the noise. Do your job what that is, get loans closed, get ’em on the books, get ’em closed, and ignore the noise and rate, volatility is noise. It’s at the point that you’ve got a buyer, get it done. If you don’t have a buyer, go find ’em. There’s a lot of business to be had out there. ’cause the general sentiment is more optimism. We’re seeing things picking up even some of the states, like the areas like Austin, Texas, where I live, where we’re starting to see and some encouraging signs. But it’s still as fast as we went up here in Austin is how fast and how far down we went. So lots of correction going on in different parts. Marc, when you’re talking, you’re running a company and hopefully you got some exciting announcements about that in the near future. But are you sensing that as well than the markets you, you’re in?
[Marc] It’s interesting, I was a few minutes late ’cause we were on the phone with a warehouse bank and we were trying to have discussions for something new and I’m hearing the people, I talk about having a real pro attitude about things out there right now, but I’m also hearing people that are still being very conservative. So, I’m getting mixed message on things. So, I don’t know. I think things are turned around good. What gets me is every time we turn around, there’s a major headline hitting us right now., I can’t believe they’re making such a big deal out of a hospital shipped to Greenland. Isn’t there better things to report on one US serviceman and we’re wondering, worried about his care? So, we offered to send the hospital ship, and you would think we offered to come in and mine all their minerals out of the mountains so they wouldn’t have any net worth for the company. So, things are going around in big circles like that. And the funnel we’re getting on information with between Iran Trump deal has got a major effect. Nobody wants us to go into a major action in Iran. I don’t think anybody common sense wants us to do that, but it might have to have some minor action to get what we need there and just in my lifetime, David, maybe you would agree or disagree with me, I don’t know. But I have not seen a more unstable world than we look at today.
[David] It’s just when you look at, I agree with you, when you look at the news headlines, there’s never a thing been thing more unstable. I think there’s instability and then there’s hope. I’m hearing more optimism or more hope is probably rather than optimism. And it is what I’m sensing Mark on that’s out there.
[Marc] I’m hearing that too, David. I don’t wanna be the bad message person here. I hear the same hope that you’re hearing and I’m hoping.
[David] That Yeah, but just when you sit, look at about us having two, the biggest buildup since the Iraq War in the Middle East. Yeah. That creates a lot of insecurity and especially then you see what’s going on with Iran and the Straits of Hormus and the, am I saying that they pronouncing that but anyway the driving oil prices up, there’s a lot of instability going on, but I think that’s what Trump’s trying to fix is let’s get this thing back on a solid footing. I think a lot of it’s the sensationalism we deal with the media, what have you heard about Venezuelas recently? Nothing.
[David] Nothing. Nothing.
[Marc] So something can be the highest pitch thing in the world, or the next crisis in the world, and all of a sudden it goes down to nothing. And it’s just, yeah, almost like that. It seems like the media just really wants to sensationalize everything out there and it just draws me nuts trying. It, yeah.
[David] I think it, that’s why Ignore the noise. It’s an old bill to check. One of my friends in Boston, a client Keith Polaski, shout out to Keith. I love the guy. And radius Financial sent me this placard that I put in my office for long, longest time and Bill Bilichec. Famous quote, ignore the noise, do your job. And I think that’s what we all gotta get back to doing. Ignore the noise.
[Marc] That’s what made him a great coach too.
[David] That was what made him a great coach. It made them a great time. Yeah. Lots of other issues going on there. But anyway, we’re going anyway, the bottom line is we have got something to look forward to this year that I think we haven’t had to look forward to in a long time. Bill, when you look or talk to Les now I don’t wanna, this is gonna be a little bit of a loaded question. Are you hearing him start sounding a little more optimistic about the long term Bill?
[Bill] Yes, but a lot of it right now is sorting out the different message being communicated by different markets, and a lot of that is short term with the Middle East, with Iran, oil starts reacting one way, but the bond market’s not reacting. There is, there’s undefinitely uncertainty, but leaning on the optimistic side.
[David] Yeah. Yep. I think that’s where hope and optimism. there just seems to be a shift in our nation with that because of the leadership we have, love them or hate. there’s just an overall shift in the optimism. Even the ones that hate ’em, gotta say all I can say is my stock, my portfolio is up significantly since this dude took over as our administrator. So we got a lot more to talk about. I want to get onto another topic that is really a hot topic right now. And that is a recent article that was published on X. And it is, this is the new pandemic. Now we’re gonna be putting a link to that article. 48 million people. I was talking to Bobby nicely today, one of my clients, and he was saying that he heard that, I think he said it was 48 million. Now, maybe that’s my ears, but this has gotten circulated around a lot and has had a lot of reads and what we’re talking about the new pandemic is the algorithms that are controlling our lives, controlling what we’re seeing. And Allen, I’m really excited to have you on the podcast today as we always look forward to having you on, but there’s so much that’s going on and then this article, because it got so much circulation around it was so well written. It’s a long article, but it talks about how social, this is the largest ongoing social experiment in the history of mankind, of what’s going on. And so how we’re being controlled, do we say are we really being controlled? No, I choose to look at this. No, you’ve got thousands. It’s this article points that we’ve got thousands of behavioral scientists working behind the scenes trying to draw your eyeballs into it. ’cause they sell your eyeballs, your attention. And when you look at this, it’s significant. So, this is the new pandemic. Be sure to go to our website, to the links in this show podcast if you have not read this article. And then the next one that was published, which I thought was the response to that, which I thought was extremely well, also, Bobby nicely sent this over to me, he says, and it’s by Connor Boyac, and it is AI isn’t coming for your future. Fear is, in other words, the fear of AI. So it’s almost a point counterpoint, but it’s talking about how are we gonna be using this? Marc, you using AI? I’m using ai. We all know the value of ChatGPT, but is it causing us to think less critically? Marc, you’re a critical thinker. You’ve been a leading voice in our industry for years. I wanted to get your perspective, so I’m gonna start with you and then we’ll get over to Allen. Would you say, mark, that your critical thinking skills have diminished as a result of your use of AI? ’cause you use a lot like I do.
[Marc] No, not at all David. I think it’s empowered me. Yeah, I use it differently than most folks. Okay. I fact search I put a calendar on it, keep my calendar squared away because it helps me prioritize and then everything I write up, I have it help me edit. Just simply make sure I spell right grammar right, et cetera. There are people that let AI do all the work. I don’t, I think that’s a terrible mistake for people to do that, and it’s a cheap ride, but I use it to empower me and make me more productive. And I am, I’m said it before and I’m gonna say it again. I’m probably 30% to 40% more productive in my day-to-day output because of AI, because I can get things out. I can decide to do a letter. I can dictate the letter. I let AI format it for me. I go in and put my final edits in it, which I always do. And it’s out. It’s gone. It’s in an email in sometimes five minutes and, I couldn’t even get to my computer that fast. So, that kind of tells how it goes and the people that miss the boat on that are really missing something because it is the biggest helping hand. It’s the best partner you could have. But then again, they’re gonna be millions of people that misuse it. And there is also gonna be millions of people that are, that don’t take the time to learn it and know how to use it. But I’m real big on AI. I if people don’t use it, they’re missing a major tool. Major tool.
[David] The article that the new pandemic got me thinking as to how much I’m using my device, my iPhone is the biggest blessing that I could ever, it’s the biggest blessing, but it does get brought with me anytime I have a quiet moat somewhere, I’m dragging it in there ’cause I want to get caught up. I don’t want to, it’s fomo. Don’t want fear of missing out on something here. Things fed to me. So, there is some legitimacy about the concern about this being a pandemic because of them wanting to algorithm capture my attention more. I get that, but it’s really coming down to how we use it, Marc. That’s why I know you, you’ve got a brilliant mind Marc. That’s why I wanted to get your perspective on that.
[Marc] Let me, lemme give you an example about something and maybe other people don’t do this. I taught. To ai, like it’s my assistant or my best friend. AI knows me better than most of my friends by now because they’ve seen all the things I write and all the things I say and all that, and they know what I am and what I’m like. So in a roundabout way, and boy, this is gonna sound strange, I viewers might go nuts on this. And a roundabout way, AI sometimes is my conscience. I will say something in, in a letter and it comes back and says, mark, I think you need to look at the second paragraph. Did you really mean to say it that way? And I said, holy crap, I didn’t.
[David] This is the blessing but see, here’s the thing. You wrote the letter. You didn’t say, write me a letter about this. You wrote the letter, you ran it through AI. Yeah. And I think that’s the difference here, folks, is what we’re trying, what I’m trying to bring out here, and Allen, I can’t wait to get your perspective and all this in also your report, but it’s really important that we look at what is happening or how we’re using it. Because if you’re using it to create everything and you’re not working on the creation side of it, then you’re trouble. Bill, you got a thought.
[Bill] Yeah I wanna echo that. so two thoughts, right? One is AI right now is what you want it to be. Yes. if you want to be lazy and have it done everything for you, then that will work, number one. Number two, you have to be really careful in judging AI when you’re looking at the results of what somebody else gave you, right? We see it right? In the mortgage space I have all the time. Somebody will say here’s a scenario and AI said that I can do this loan. Yeah, and you didn’t tell AI this, you missed that. You got that wrong, like garbage in, garbage out. The other part of it, where you went with having your device with you at all times, again, and I get it, they’re folks that are creating all this, they’re doing everything they can to get people addicted, but it’s still your decision at the end of the day. And, one of my counterpoints obviously so we talked about the Olympic hockey game. So we had a virtual family watch party yesterday that had people in six different states and two countries and we’re all on a team’s video chat, having a great time. Everybody’s watching the game separately, but really interacting as if we were all in the same room. You that’s the plus of technology and what it’s capable of.
[David] Yes, absolutely.
[Bill] Yeah. If you’re gonna walk around with your phone right in front of your face 24 hours a day, then that’s a person problem, not a technology problem.
[David] That’s exactly right.