[Alice] Thank you Matt. That was terrific. So please everyone check out MBS live.net for up to the nanosecond updates. And with things going on in the world today, that can be very important. So use the signup code LOL to get an extended trial period without having to put in your credit card number. Alright, team lots going on. Lots happened over the weekend. So first of all, bill, I’m gonna turn it over to you because we heard from Les and from Matt both had their thoughts on the impact of the events in Iran over the weekend. So I’d love to hear yours.
[Bill] Thanks Alice. And couple of different thoughts. First, as Matt pointed out, right last week was incredibly stable. So whether you’re an lo, whether you’re a secondary shop. Past performance is not indicative of future results, right? Whether it was, as Matt said, it was on a month end position, squaring and then reacting to it this morning or the activities in Iran. I think, gut instincts as Iran probably played a bigger part in it than, I think that than Matt certainly does. But don’t get lulled into a false sense of security no matter what. In terms of what’s going on in the Middle East and how to play that we’ve gotta let some time elapse to see what the real impact is. He’s right and you see a knee jerk reaction, oil higher. Is that gonna hold? Nobody knows at this point and comment I heard this morning. I thought, describe that part very well, rich. If activity in the straits of far moves is slowed down, that’s like kinking a garden hose, right? The water’s still there. When you open up the hose, it all flows through and things get back to normal. The real risk to oil and the inflationary impact is if oil or natural gas facilities are hit. ‘Cause that starts having months, potentially even years long impact in the supply. There are a lot of people that are way smarter than me giving opinions and really they’re giving multiple layers of if this, then this. So I’m certainly not gonna try and give an opinion as to where this is gonna play out on the market side to what Matt and Las Bo said. So we’ve gone from on one side of 4% to about the same distance on the other side. Don’t get distracted by that. Go sell go do business.
[Alice] Yeah, I ran into a loan officer over the weekend who was saying he wasn’t seeing the slightly lower rates on their rate sheets yet. Is that, was that just uncommon for the company that he’s at? Are companies still, like you said, waiting a little bit, let, a little time lapse?
[Bill] I think anytime you get a move like that the, secondary shops are notorious and for a reason of moving slower on improvements than then when the market’s getting worse. But it also, every time you cross some of these thresholds, folks are adjusting models and there can be some legitimate noise in there that it may take a day, a couple of days before. Somebody’s pricing model really catches up. So a lot of times it’s not a nefarious grabbing more profits, it takes a little bit of time for models to catch up and, who knows? Maybe if somebody’s, valuing of servicing has a material change when the 10 year goes below 4%, they may not see it in their rate sheets for a couple of days. So just because we have the data to track things basis, point by basis point doesn’t mean we should. That makes sense. I think that’ll be super helpful for some of our listeners out there. So David, what do you think?
[Kittle] What Bill says, you didn’t see significant changes when it on rate sheets overall when it went below four. Now it’s back up above four because whether it’s, as Matt says, year end trading or looking at the 10 year is what secondary does or is this the Iranian attacks over there. So everybody just take a deep breath, stay calm, let it pan out. And so we didn’t see a significant lowering last week and rates aren’t up shooting through the roof today because of this. Oils come back a little bit. Actually, it was up seven, eight bucks a barrel. It’s back down to only up $5 a barrel. Right now the stock market’s only down 18 points after opening this morning, I think down 500. So it’s settling a little bit and everybody just needs to stay calm. And we’re in the first what, 48 72 hours of this thing. Do loans, right?
[Bill] And one other thing, to David’s point, so doesn’t matter what you’re trading right there’s a really simple hierarchy, right? You read the headline, you trade, and then you read the story, right? So you’re always gonna have overreactions to things initially, and whether it’s minute by minute or day by day is this event playing out, things settle into where they should be, but that’s not always gonna correlate it all to the first move.
[Alice] Marc, I’d love to hear your thoughts on all this too.
[Marc] I’m gonna do one of my modified rants here. Is that okay? Absolutely. Okay. I’m one of the elder statesmen on this call with states men or women on this call with Mr. Lichen. And we talk about this all the time, about what we’ve seen in our lifetime. That’s one of our favorite conversations to do. And I’ve seen it all, felt it, all observed it all, thought about it all. And realize a long time ago, you don’t look a damn what I think. Things are gonna play out the way they play out and what’s happening right now in Iran and with our army and everything else, and military forces is nothing new. We’ve seen it before. It’s just a scale dis everything’s a scale issue. Whether it was us going into the Dominican Republican public back when I was a kid, or whether we’re sending troops to Vietnam or whether we’re blowing up oil facilities in Iran. So the public of the United States has to get realistic about things and all and say, how does this really have an effect on us long term? It’s a ripple. It’s a ripple in a wave, and that’s why I’m not expecting any major thing to happen on it. Here’s what I would expect would cause a major movement in our, economies in the country that affect our rates. If. We had a God bless us. If we don’t we don’t want this. If we had a aircraft carrier over there get hit by rocket and kill 2000 people and it goes down, then the whole country would be against the president. Because look what you did. You killed all those guys. And you’re not gonna see that kind rattle of three people that lost their lives. It should be, but they, you don’t hear that. You can hear it on something big. So there’s things like that can happen and can change things around, but I’m so frustrated now in my life as I look back and see how the two sides of the aisles are critical to each other. Every day and everything that’s being done, and nobody’s really working for the, in my opinion, nobody really is working hard for the good of the country and the things that need to be dealt with. Everything from help for the elderly, help for the poor doing things that make sense to make sure pricing didn’t go outta control in this country. Just anything and everything. It affects our economy and affects our people and how they live. That doesn’t seem to be the focus anymore. We sit here and try to focus on mortgage rates and wonder why the market changes. And I think I could do sometimes just as well as we do with a oui board trying to figure it out. Because it’s sits temperamental and it only lasts for a couple hours or a couple days. But what I’m thinking is we need to have more solidity in the way decisions are made in this country. And I’m not talking about political decisions, I’m talking about finance, interest rates decisions made in Congress about things. ‘Cause I, for one, I’m just very frustrated as I watch the whole scene and nothing seems to happen in any kind of rapid basis. And I’m still just sitting here saying, how can it be that we’re still sitting here not funding critical issues of the government over one party, over another, trying to get over on one or two things that they’re trying to do and trying to weed that in to make that a political event rather than making it if we paid our bills that way, we’d lose all our property and foreclosed on. The government can play that. And it affects millions and millions of people. And they don’t seem to get penalized at all for it, playing that spectrum back and forth on it. So I think all the people out there dealing with this stuff that we deal with need to get a life figure out what really is a positive thing they need to do to get accomplished and what they wanna do and accomplish for this country, and do it and quit going off on these tangents that cause all of us a problem and causes us to have to worry with our war. And Iran that we’ve jumped into here now is gonna destroy mortgage rates for the next six months. I hope it doesn’t, but who knows? I don’t know whether it will or not, and we don’t know yet, so we’ll see. So that’s my rent for today.
[Alice] Thank you. I’m sorry, what was a good one? I took some good notes. There’s a lot of really valuable points in there, but I see David wants to jump in on something that you may have said.
[Kittle] I think Mark made great comments. So good rant. I would add to that, that the people who are making these decisions, regardless of which side you’re on, it doesn’t affect them monetarily at all. And, I’ve got a family member, my son-in-law flies helicopters in the Coast Guard, and they missed a paycheck. But he’s still flying because of the politics in Washington, DC to Mark’s point, and Mr. Schumer got paid and everybody on the Democratic side that’s holding this up to pay Department of Homeland Security, all got their paychecks. So see how that plays out.
[Alice] Yeah. Bill, do you wanna close this out on this on the topic of interest rates and world events?
[Bill] After Mr. Kid’s comment, I guess my, I’ll close it out by asking if, Mr. Schumer has given your son-in-law his credit card number so he can take care of himself in the next couple of weeks? No he never got that voicemail bill. Yeah. Bummer.
[Alice] I’ll talk a little bit more in my segment on just one example of at the federal level trying to create, through an executive order reducing the investor involvement in home purchases. Stay tuned to my segment. I’ll open up that discussion and get this group’s thoughts on that as well. It was brought up in the MBA Mortgage Minute at the beginning of the program, so stay tuned for that.